Forget flying cars — passenger drones are the future

In the article Forget flying cars — passenger drones are the future, author Joe Blair paints a picture where 10 years from now, passenger ride-sharing drones may be the option of choice for personal travel (2017).   

Mr. Blair illustrates that while the conventional thought of people in the future flying around in their personal flying autos like the Jetsons is common, in reality it is not a viable option considering that there are some 326+ million people in the United States ("Population Clock," 2017). With an estimated 2015 tally of registered vehicles in the U.S. at around 236 million, the likelihood of shifting any significant portion of vehicular traffic to the airspace would be a nearly impossible feat (Statista, 2017). With passenger, military and commercial aircraft, coupled with the onslaught of commercial drones that will soon be operating in our skies, there won’t be much unused capacity remaining in our airspace.

 As Mr. Blair points out, if all personal flying auto operators were required to amass 40+ flying hours in order to earn an FAA approved flying certificate, the market for these craft would likely be small (2017). As such, he points out that to achieve a realistic outcome, passenger drones of the future will need to be fully automated. Due to the likely exorbitant purchasing cost, these automated drones will also likely be available to the general public as a ridesharing or taxi service much like the current Uber or Lyft services, allowing for on-demand transport without substantial cost investment. When considering Mr. Blair’s reasoning for this technology being used primarily for ride-sharing, I do agree that this might be the most realistic outcome of passenger drone development.    

Machine learning algorithms, sensors and safety systems like collision avoidance currently being developed by Tesla, Uber and Google for use in their autonomous vehicles will serve the passenger drones just as well. It is likely that these passenger drones may have an easier time navigating the skies than autonomous automobiles have, as there are often fewer unpredictable obstacles encountered in the skies, and there are more options for evading them (Blair 2017). 

These automated rideshare drone designs will likely be a blend- a large quadcopter with fixed wings to sustain heavy weight while maintaining maneuverability in a cluttered urban landscape, and may be closer to reality than many believe. The Chinese firm EHang has already received clearance from Nevada to test the world’s first passenger drone. The craft can reportedly fly at 11,500 feet, and travel at speeds up to 63 mph, although limited to 23 minutes flight time (Blair 2017).  Uber is also working on an autonomous air transportation service with Uber Elevate, utilizing Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) aircraft, with the goal of operational service within the next decade.

There are challenges that will need to be addressed if these companies are to succeed. First, current battery technology limits the operational range of drones. The rapid rate of technological advancement however, could find a viable replacement for the traditional lithium-ion batteries currently in use. One option discussed in this article centers around a Seattle based company, LaserMotive.  LaserMotive teamed with Lockheed Martin in 2012, using lasers targeting photovoltaic cells mounted on the Stalker UAS, maintaining flight for 48 hours (Blair 2017).

Additionally, regulations are a challenge that need to be addressed to move forward in the near term. FAA rules for line of sight operations and operator requirements may stifle U.S. placement as a leader in passenger drone innovation, as other countries are already working to be at the forefront of autonomous commercial drone usage. Delft, a city in the Netherlands has already approved hosting a fully autonomous drone network, with docking stations and rentals. Domino’s pizza has already teamed with drone maker Flirtey, delivering the first pizza using a commercial drone in November of 2016.   

Mr. Blair identifies a path forward for the U.S. to regain its footing, by opening testing of passenger drones for emergency services. He suggests using passenger drones for search and rescue and ambulance services in life and death situations. An example being a cardiac patient in New York city, who requires attention within 6 minutes, while the standard ambulance response time in 2015 was over 12 minutes. In this case, a passenger drone could airlift a paramedic and equip rapidly to the scene.

 I do support further research/development of this technology and usage (once refined) in emergency situations, as it has the potential to save countless lives. As Mr. Blair says, “Why not take a risk on saving people who would have no chance otherwise?”

References

Blair, J. (2017, January 28). Forget flying cars — passenger drones are the future. Retrieved from https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/28/forget-flying-cars-passenger-drones-are-the-future/

Population Clock. (2017). Retrieved November 10, 2017, from https://www.census.gov/popclock/

Statista. (2017). Number of cars in U.S. Retrieved November 10, 2017, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/